tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post8572672648755600881..comments2023-11-03T06:02:02.128-07:00Comments on By Ken Levine: More thoughts on your Dan Harmon thoughtsBy Ken Levinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17305293821975250420noreply@blogger.comBlogger60125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-16317070322187249492012-05-30T22:17:05.151-07:002012-05-30T22:17:05.151-07:00When paradigms change, they change fast. Network ...When paradigms change, they change fast. Network TV shows in general simply aren't aimed at an internet-savvy audience. But that approach will backfire as that audience ages and eventually dies off. The audiences coming up behind them do not, generally speaking, follow content in the way the sponsorship model of TV financing requires. Maybe a way will be found to transition ads to some online form, but I doubt it. Direct pay seems more likely: ads just turn off members of the new media audiences, and are psychologically less effective in addition to that. I think Ken has the right time frame but I think he's also underestimating the rapidity with which the old paradigm can give way. It will take a successful technological innovation of some kind, but it could happen much faster than we might expect.Heckyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16853554291894034917noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-24410588918883888762012-05-29T11:10:01.462-07:002012-05-29T11:10:01.462-07:00But what will happen when the government finds a w...But what will happen when the government finds a way to regulate the internet?Michael Raffertynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-12835825587807739682012-05-28T16:56:33.937-07:002012-05-28T16:56:33.937-07:00I had never heard of Louis CK until last year; he ...I had never heard of Louis CK until last year; he wasn't globally big until recently. Joss Whedon is an order of magnitude bigger than Harmon (or perhaps more since the Avengers, but that was inevitable to anyone in the know) but Harmon could take a similar trajectory and, today, the rate would be even quicker. <br /><br />You're right though. A lot of mediocre artists will need to find day jobs. If you aren't genuinely unique in a global age, the public owe you nothing.nerkulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04927301561819474314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-41719429426311814632012-05-28T09:22:42.476-07:002012-05-28T09:22:42.476-07:00"Joss Whedon and Louis CK have already demons..."Joss Whedon and Louis CK have already demonstrated this."<br /><br /><br />And how many years and how much success in regular channels did each of those gentlemen have before they were able to make some money through the internet?<br /><br />MikeMBungenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-31855298384213551962012-05-28T03:26:09.350-07:002012-05-28T03:26:09.350-07:00Yep, I was going to mention Nerdist - it seems lik...Yep, I was going to mention Nerdist - it seems like that may be the way forward for 'TV'. Just looking at some of the comments on youtube, nerds get to watch what they want to watch - if the Nerdist channel makes money, others might soon follow.Lennyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05909862698339428470noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-36705339873269670292012-05-27T11:56:54.097-07:002012-05-27T11:56:54.097-07:00Define 'pop'. In our world is any show big...Define 'pop'. In our world is any show bigger than Community? TV is about American Idol and Harrison Bergeroning the audience to a quiet, meaningless death. Literally nobody else watches any more.nerkulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04927301561819474314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-2581273113964548632012-05-27T10:11:30.333-07:002012-05-27T10:11:30.333-07:00The people here who say they would pay for Harmon&...The people here who say they would pay for Harmon's show are likely full of it. And even if they did, in the aggregate you wouldn't put enough money together to finance the table read. <br /><br />My money says a two-tier structure will gradually develop. Broadcast quality and budgeted shows and a vast array of shoestring budget web series. Occasionally, one of them will pop, especially if a heavyweight like Whedon lends his name to it. But you won't see the revolution that many are predicting.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-35592706519932308672012-05-27T10:11:13.194-07:002012-05-27T10:11:13.194-07:00The people here who say they would pay for Harmon&...The people here who say they would pay for Harmon's show are likely full of it. And even if they did, in the aggregate you wouldn't put enough money together to finance the table read. <br /><br />My money says a two-tier structure will gradually develop. Broadcast quality and budgeted shows and a vast array of shoestring budget web series. Occasionally, one of them will pop, especially if a heavyweight like Whedon lends his name to it. But you won't see the revolution that many are predicting.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-24940531373857373012012-05-27T03:04:16.260-07:002012-05-27T03:04:16.260-07:00Of course, Arrested Development is coming exclusiv...Of course, Arrested Development is coming exclusively to Netflix. I've never dealt with Netflix. If they make it a simple download without a messy signup procedure, I'm in. Otherwise I'm stealing that too, and I'll wait for the next middleman to get it right.nerkulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04927301561819474314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-689265881865809382012-05-27T02:37:29.192-07:002012-05-27T02:37:29.192-07:00I'm 34, I own my house, and my business is wor...I'm 34, I own my house, and my business is worth considerably more than 10K. <br /><br />Scott, I don't get the irony in my saying I would happily pay for the entertainment that I enjoy. I pay for cinema, I pay for the large amount of music I download, yet somehow television hasn't found a model that allows me to pay directly for what I want to watch. Does that seem right to you?<br /><br />In my country they've just made thepiratebay illegal, and that was one of (thankfully many) ways we had to find new quality entertainment. I remember a couple of years ago I got a warning for seeding an episode of Parks & Recreation. NBC objected, even though without torrenting it wouldn't otherwise have been available in my country. <br /><br />Why bury your heads in the sand about the inevitability of the future? The fact is if you're a creator who makes quality and respects your audience, you will be paid. Joss Whedon and Louis CK have already demonstrated this. If you're a middleman then you need to wake up and change your business model, rather than lobbying politicians to make unenforceable laws that actually hurt artists.nerkulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04927301561819474314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-29355625916660036282012-05-26T21:52:19.055-07:002012-05-26T21:52:19.055-07:00"And I love nerkul's post where s/he says..."And I love nerkul's post where s/he says what they watch is downloaded illegally and they'd pay for programming. The irony just drips from that."<br /><br />Plenty of irony to be had from almost any twenty-something year old twit, which unfortunately makes up the majority of Community viewers. All these opinions on the best way for Sony to handle their business in general, and Harmon in particular from people who've never had more than 10K in their bank accounts in their entire lives is hilarious.<br />Reminds me of the Conan fiasco. All the crying by fanboys, and when all the dust settles, Conan's ratings are in the basement, and his "supporters" are off somewhere downloading free movies.<br />I think Conan effectively diminished twitter campaigns forever. Executives now know it's just a little dust kicked up by their opponents PR machine, made up of mostly no-life nerds with emotional problems and the attention span of a gnat. Nothing to pay any attention to.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-39711367285886602332012-05-26T20:07:27.514-07:002012-05-26T20:07:27.514-07:00Sure people say "Oh, put on something good ou...Sure people say "Oh, put on something good out and I'll pay for it." But when the time comes to actually enter that VISA card number, 90+ percent of those people will decline and find something for free to watch. Probably on TV.<br /><br />And I love nerkul's post where s/he says what they watch is downloaded illegally and they'd pay for programming. The irony just drips from that.Scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04942495315172561734noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-87190992332925827892012-05-26T01:09:20.675-07:002012-05-26T01:09:20.675-07:00Re: the Cougar Town budget on TBS, here's what...Re: the Cougar Town budget on TBS, here's what co-creator Kevin Biegel (who I believe will be the showrunner next year) told critic Alan Sepinwall -- it's vague, but FWIW:<br /><br />TBS really stepped up in a good way with the budget, they've been saying, "We're fans of what you guys are doing, so please keep doing it." I don't know that this is a situation necessarily where we have to go out tomorrow and every episode's a bottle show, because now the budget's been quartered. But I also think it makes financial sense to just tighten the bootstraps a little bit. I'm not sure what that's going to mean at the end of the day, but it does seem like TBS wants to keep making the show we've been making, and we're going to try to keep doing that to the best of our abilities.<br /><br />(in this article: http://www.hitfix.com/blogs/whats-alan-watching/posts/interview-cougar-town-co-creator-kevin-biegel-on-tbs-move)Erinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-85103530160166338252012-05-25T21:28:00.863-07:002012-05-25T21:28:00.863-07:00armchairprogrammer:
but that's my whole point...armchairprogrammer:<br /><br />but that's my whole point. They're not accurately describing the number of people being exposed to advertisements, since their cross-section does not accurately reflect the viewing population. To go back to my nudist colony analogy, if the survey of the colony says 8/10 people like shoes, and the company sells 8 shoes, they look at their numbers and say "Well, 8/10 people said they wanted shoes, 8/10 people bought shoes, thus we sold shoes to 80% of the nudist colony. Good job, folks!" when in reality, only 8 people bought the shoes.<br /><br /><br />Likewise, if Nielsen ratings are saying 2 thousand people of their cross section are watching ads, allegedly representing 2 million people of the general populace being exposed to the ads, how long is it going to take people to realize that that many people aren't watching TV, and only 2 thousand are seeing the ads?<br /><br />If more people are watching online than used to, doesn't that suggest that the old system is broken? And does the nielsen system accurately reflect this? (Or do they just claim to to secure their business?) I suspect we'll never really know. But what I'm sure of is, every one I know watches and follows Community intimately. Very few watch The Big Bang Theory.alnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-27235167412044886462012-05-25T20:52:09.153-07:002012-05-25T20:52:09.153-07:00The main bit of Ken's post that I disagree wit...The main bit of Ken's post that I disagree with is the rate of change. Right now I download about 20 hours of American television a week. It's incredibly convenient, with no adverts, and I can watch on any device. If everyone did this Nielsen would become useless overnight. Advertisers would need to work out placement and sponsorship deals to reach the people actually watching. Community got tiny ratings, did a whole episode about Subway, and got renewed. While Harmon was blogging about Greenblatt he can't help but have considered cutting the middleman altogether.<br /><br />It's only lack of awareness that prevents this changing the industry overnight. That means the correct model is exponential. Even if takeup is small today and small tomorrow it'll be 100% soon.nerkulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04927301561819474314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-44556040415451821022012-05-25T20:28:23.458-07:002012-05-25T20:28:23.458-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.nerkulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04927301561819474314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-2436326787356497202012-05-25T15:52:20.871-07:002012-05-25T15:52:20.871-07:00Dear al,
I'm afraid that the flaw in your &qu...Dear al,<br /><br />I'm afraid that the flaw in your "non-pro" logic is the belief that Nielsen exists to measure the viewers of the programs. It doesn't; its function is to measure the viewers' exposure to the ADVERTISEMENTS. This can be seen in TV ratings reports when a program with no ads (such as a Presidential speech) is broadcast. Sometimes, no ratings numbers are presented, because the paying clients (ad agencies and their customers) have no interest in how many people watched. <br /><br />Your other point, regarding the legit1macy of Nielsen's process...<br />well, you either accept the science of statistics or you don't. I won't champion it here, other than to say that it is widely accepted as scientifically valid. Of course, so is the theory of evolution, and that's not enough for a growing handful of people.armchairprogrammernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-6670365878073843942012-05-25T10:55:49.187-07:002012-05-25T10:55:49.187-07:00"If I didn't know it I wouldn't have ..."If I didn't know it I wouldn't have written it."<br /><br /><br />So, are you sleeping with Whedon or are you his accountant?<br /><br />MikeMBungenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-77477285871875352652012-05-25T08:53:40.685-07:002012-05-25T08:53:40.685-07:00If I didn't know it I wouldn't have writte...If I didn't know it I wouldn't have written it. You don't know it.nerkulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04927301561819474314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-127639043983522982012-05-25T08:39:17.018-07:002012-05-25T08:39:17.018-07:00"As it stands, Joss Whedon could make a very ..."As it stands, Joss Whedon could make a very comfortable living financing his own stuff and selling it to his internet fans."<br /><br /><br />You don't know that. You don't know how much he could make and you don't know what Whedon considers "comfortable".<br /><br />This is the internet fanboy version of the political pundit fallacy where the pundit is incapable of distinguishing between what they want and what would actually be popular with the public. The internet fanboy version is the conviction that what they want out of the entertainment world must be profitable because...well, just because.<br /><br />MikeMBungenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-63915580844484024712012-05-25T06:24:00.281-07:002012-05-25T06:24:00.281-07:00Okay Ken, I'll agree with you that the new-med...Okay Ken, I'll agree with you that the new-media business model isn't there yet to support shows. We've heard that Community was getting abysmal TV ratings but fantastic digital views. But the real money iss in TV commercials, so those are the ratings that counted<br /><br />But here's my thing: are those ratings even accurate anymore? Aren't those nielsen ratings just a small sample, used to predict what the audience at large is watching-- but if most of that audience ISN'T watching TV anymore, those are bad numbers. People who watch online aren't going to be part of Nielsen's study, so it's an inaccurate cross-section of viewing habits. (like if I unknowingly went to a nudist colony to poll for favorite clothes... the only people that would respond would be the small number that DID wear clothes, and my sampling would be wrong for the colony as a whole)<br /><br />So not only is the new media model the way things are moving... but it seems to me, it's a model that HAS to be accepted, and NOW, because the old one simply isn't accurate. It's not that I want networks and companies buying ads to focus on digital media because that's what my generation watches (though I do want that), it's that focusing on TV ratings is a lie.<br /><br /><br />What do you think? Any flaws in my "non-pro" logic?alnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-29577218497727250782012-05-25T05:52:08.866-07:002012-05-25T05:52:08.866-07:00To reiterate: I own no television and download eve...To reiterate: I own no television and download everything illegally, and I would happily pay for stuff I enjoy. Dan just has to ask.nerkulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04927301561819474314noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-37471815177262814582012-05-25T02:08:41.548-07:002012-05-25T02:08:41.548-07:00NOt to mention the fact the the young and 'new...NOt to mention the fact the the young and 'new' audience is being raised in an enviroment where they find it normal not to pay for downloads.Ger Apeldoornhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03633862833036214748noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-91641509986283686262012-05-24T23:20:35.410-07:002012-05-24T23:20:35.410-07:00As usual, Ken makes eminently good sense. There...As usual, Ken makes eminently good sense. There's just one point from the first post that bears repeating here: Screw Chevy Chase.Dr. Leo Marvinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07669626692363827776noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-39110248560742552312012-05-24T19:20:39.255-07:002012-05-24T19:20:39.255-07:00In other news: Cliff just found the perfect woman!...In other news: Cliff just found the perfect woman! It would be the ultimate ending for his character... Someone to bolster his confidence, and stop him trying to impress everyone, and sure enough, the IMDb confirms that the actress never reprised the role. You can't "fix" a character in a TV show! Great episode, though. Excellent job by Ratzenberger, too.Johnny Walkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13302545167970532080noreply@blogger.com