tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post6536975273065219181..comments2023-11-03T06:02:02.128-07:00Comments on By Ken Levine: Why I don't love analytics By Ken Levinehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17305293821975250420noreply@blogger.comBlogger49125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-90921624798507924012020-11-09T10:14:33.487-08:002020-11-09T10:14:33.487-08:00Except that Billy Beane's teams won bupkis.Except that Billy Beane's teams won bupkis.mikenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-38389194088813305742020-10-27T23:42:41.155-07:002020-10-27T23:42:41.155-07:00Ken, you and a lot of broadcasters (the late Joe M...Ken, you and a lot of broadcasters (the late Joe Morgan, who instinctively knew a lot of sabermetric principles, such as the value of walks, as a player, among them) set up a straw man argument of "modern Analytics versus traditional statistics" that is unrealistic. <br /><br />A very interesting and far more accurate perspective can be found in "The Only Rule is it Has to Work", by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller. It's the true story of two stats guys, Baseball Prospectus writers and podcasters, who are given personnel and other control over an independent league team in the low, low, low minors. The result was that they and the traditional baseball people both learned things. It's a far more nuanced look at how these decisions are made plus it gives a really nice picture of the economics for players and owners in the bottom rung of professional baseball. Well-written and honest and I commend it to anyone interested in these issues.Breadbakernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-37961728694820372142020-10-27T16:14:27.303-07:002020-10-27T16:14:27.303-07:00Off-Topic ALERT
Jerry Lee Lewis 85th Birthday Cel...Off-Topic ALERT<br /><br />Jerry Lee Lewis 85th Birthday Celebration tonight at 8pm(ET). And will be archived:<br /><br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SuMxwL4Mvm0DrBOPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07179469265158025584noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-56493629139376981062020-10-27T14:36:02.523-07:002020-10-27T14:36:02.523-07:00It's a form of collusion now since all teams u...<i>It's a form of collusion now since all teams use the same analytics. A free agent may have hit 25 home runs last year but if his OPS is under a certain number no one wants him. Forget that he was a model player, a mentor to young players, and a pillar of the community. His OPS was too low. Or a pitcher's WIP was too high. </i><br /><br /><br />If Michal Lewis shall be believed, Beane and Podestra had much the same access to stats as their rivals (though, it may well be they were well plugged in to the "new stats" already gathered for every MLB game by SABRE by 2003). Lewis asserted that those two valued commonly-available metrics differently than others. <br /><br />These days, it would be no surprise if various teams were similarly distinctive. <br /><br />This year the Mariners took "the long view" with Evan White - promoted this year from AA. He was one of four Mariners with a minimum of 200 plate appearances and one of three who appeared in a minimum of 50 games. <br /><br />He started his first month starting in 31/37 games and was an MLB Leader - in K's. I suppose Sims and Blowers were well-informed to say that White, even as a rook, had one of the best gloves (at 1st base) in the majors. <br /><br />He started in all 28 team games in September and ended up batting .176/.252/.346 with 8 HR and 26 RBI in 202 PA. <br /><br />Let's see if he bats like a major leaguer in 2021. <br /><br />IIRC, early in my fandom Gene Tenace "broke out" for the A's in the 'Series to get the WS MVP in '72. He hit 4 dingers, and went .348/.400/.913 in 25 PA and 7 games. In the ALCS that year he went .059/.200/,059 in 20 PA and 5 games. <br /><br />From 1972-1976 he made a "comfortable living" - averaging $40,000/season. He then became "wealthy" in the early days of free agency - the Padres (and Cards) paid him about $300,000/season 1977-1982. <br /><br />Why? It may have had something to do with his extreme patience as a hitter. '73-'79 he twice led the AL in walks and averaged 104 BB and 575 PA in those years. <br /><br />For his career he batted .241/.388/.429Jahn Ghaltnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-68710225876313826142020-10-27T14:17:23.561-07:002020-10-27T14:17:23.561-07:00I see you're not allowing comments on your Tue...I see you're not allowing comments on your Tuesday post, but I wanted to alert you to this article where some prominent screenwriters look at this year as if it were a movie. How would you end it?<br /><br /><br /><br />https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/how-will-pandemic-election-2020-end/2020/10/26/4af0e452-11b7-11eb-bc10-40b25382f1be_story.html?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_most&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F2c5c565%2F5f98471f9d2fda0efb557d31%2F5eac78f19bbc0f3a788d9800%2F9%2F68%2Faa44e17e30c3b050bb0b96556df5727a<br />Buttermilk Skyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07430011403223875192noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-40632864400346602912020-10-27T12:21:29.268-07:002020-10-27T12:21:29.268-07:00@TJ
OK Boomer
it would hardly be fair to judge th...@TJ<br />OK Boomer<br /><br />it would hardly be fair to judge the state of baseball - the game, not the business - based on Jim Bouton's account of the 1969 or 1970 Seattle Pilots.<br /><br />Would be like trying to judge the state of professional football based on this year's Atlanta Falcons or Dallas Cowboys.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-36676303893599339482020-10-27T10:14:04.065-07:002020-10-27T10:14:04.065-07:00My favorite period of baseball was the 1980s, part...My favorite period of baseball was the 1980s, particularly in the National League -- arguably the best-ever blend of power and speed. Perhaps the much-maligned multi-purpose stadiums and artificial turf played a role, but if ballparks today were built with higher outfield walls (say, 25 to 30 feet in height), we'd have a lot more caroms and far more triples (the game's most exciting play). Also, considering Mike Schmidt played two-thirds of his career on turf (and no, I'm <i>not</i> suggesting it be brought back), he justifiably earned those many Gold Gloves. <br /><br />A Frank Sinatra song title best describes today's static, home run-or-strikeout game: "All Or Nothing At All." VP81955https://www.blogger.com/profile/11792390726196611188noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-67765065895527041232020-10-27T07:35:36.856-07:002020-10-27T07:35:36.856-07:00OK Boomer.
Also, each isolated event in a game ha...OK Boomer.<br /><br />Also, each isolated event in a game has a huge amount of chance. That's part of what makes the game 9and sports in general) great. I'm a Cub fan, for example, but I loved (in retrospect) what Rajai Davis did in Game Seven of the 2016 World Series to Aroldis Chapman (also because of the kind of person Chapman appears to be, but that's a different topic). But everything is percentages. Teams should do what they can to increase their percentages over time.<br /><br />I'm rereading BALL FOUR. When you look at the decisions Joe Schultz, Sal Maglie, and the other coaches and GMs made and how badly treated and underpaid the players were back then, it's hard to argue that the game isn't better now.T.J.https://www.blogger.com/profile/17847744868968851680noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-59651010021318982232020-10-27T06:18:21.878-07:002020-10-27T06:18:21.878-07:00This is a roundabout way of turning the OK Boomer ...This is a roundabout way of turning the OK Boomer thing around on the kids.<br /><br />All of the above that's been written, sure. But what is baseball worst problem and has been for years now? Pace of play. Watch any game on youtube from prior to say, 1970. People did their job. Nobody was *icking around,, adjusting their cup after every pitch, etc., waiting for the walk up music to finish. "Celebrate me, me, me." <br /><br />Play the freakin' game. Games routinely went just slightly over two hours and many times clocked in at 1:50 or so, until the millennials, et al., slowed it down to this.<br /><br />Yes, analytics has ruined baseball. Nothing but home runs and strike outs. Who cares. But fix the pace of play problem first.<br /><br />And, the night game issue: Baseball needed the revenue to pay the players (and themselves), but you've lost an entire generation with World Series night games. You seriously couldn't play the weekend games during the afternoon?<br /><br />And happy birthday Mr. Isaacs.<br />bensonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-497296889959018512020-10-27T02:31:12.508-07:002020-10-27T02:31:12.508-07:001. 2019 Regular seasons
NFL (32 teams, 16 games) ...1. 2019 Regular seasons<br />NFL (32 teams, 16 games) An average of 66,479 people a game- a total of 16.67 million spectators in 2019<br />MLB (30 teams, 165 games) An average of 28,317 people a game- a total of 68.48 million spectators in 2019 <br /><br />How much would NFL average attendance change if number of games - sponsored by brain surgeons- increased per team by a multiple of ten ?<br /><br />2. World Series Ratings Booster<br />Hire the greatest music stars- they’ll work for “free” (like NFL half-time entertainment) -<br />to play three songs during each seventh inning stretch Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-60684988995363583662020-10-26T20:46:22.917-07:002020-10-26T20:46:22.917-07:00Happy birthday, David.
And happy birthday to my d...Happy birthday, David.<br /><br />And happy birthday to my daughter Stephanie.<br /><br />And happy anniversary to the Gunfight at the OK Corral.Cap'n Bobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11783977137812876489noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-36233904027967984572020-10-26T18:46:05.055-07:002020-10-26T18:46:05.055-07:00P.S. I just heard on "TMZ" that rapper L...P.S. I just heard on "TMZ" that rapper Lil Pump has endorsed Donald Trump. I guess you'll be crossing his name off the list as well.<br /><br />M.B.Mike Bloodworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04755626259169126800noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-22098144255075128812020-10-26T18:43:30.537-07:002020-10-26T18:43:30.537-07:00Moe, I think that team had a reliever named Moe Dr...Moe, I think that team had a reliever named Moe Drabowski. You know, I didn't watch that series since I didn't get into baseball until 1967, but I had a book on Sandy Koufax, so I read up on Series in '63, '65, and '66.Mike Barerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14447874605833321732noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-49061814711431133962020-10-26T18:39:43.988-07:002020-10-26T18:39:43.988-07:00Speaking of Aaron Sorkin, I had never heard of &qu...Speaking of Aaron Sorkin, I had never heard of "analytics" until I saw the movie "Moneyball." Despite a few instances of Sorkin's trademark verbosity it was an O.K. movie. I give it a 7 out of 10.<br /><br />But, if you're going to ignore the math doesn't that poke a hole in the "trust science" thing? <br /><br />Even though I'm not a baseball fan I'm really enjoying this series. And I always root for the Dodgers when they're in contention.<br />Regarding start times, it's six of one... In a normal, non-pandemic year those in the Pacific time zone with 9 to 5 jobs are usually stuck in rush hour traffic and would miss a big chunk of the beginning of the games. This applies to "Monday Night Football" and the NBA playoffs as well. Although, with an exciting game like basketball it's easier to stay awake till the end. <br /><br />I peaked in my thirties. So for David it's down hill from here.<br /><br />Go Dodgers! <br /><br />M.B.Mike Bloodworthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04755626259169126800noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-55247835525199427092020-10-26T17:35:05.972-07:002020-10-26T17:35:05.972-07:00To Sanford:
Was Roberts thinking of Game 5 of the...To Sanford:<br /><br />Was Roberts thinking of Game 5 of the 2019 NLDS, when he left Kershaw in too long and Rendon and Soto made him pay for it?VP81955https://www.blogger.com/profile/11792390726196611188noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-49016527546876936092020-10-26T16:59:29.196-07:002020-10-26T16:59:29.196-07:00https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Series_televis...https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Series_television_ratings also viewership. The ratings and the viewership have gone down for quite a while now. There are a number of things that have caused viewership to go down. Certainly long games have to bree one of them. It is not good when games end after 12 in the east. There is more to watch on television. Maybe it has to do with the younger kids having fathers that were not interested in baseball. My son's are in their 30's. They like baseball but they are not as invested as I am. As for taking Kershaw out. I certainly would have left him in for one more batter. It wasn't a comparison to Gibson per se, but some mentioned all the complete games that Gibson pitched in the World Series. There was just the world series and not rounds of play offs. sanfordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06580867647162091670noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-85077043780540602832020-10-26T16:17:22.544-07:002020-10-26T16:17:22.544-07:00If analytics was 100% foolproof, then that kind of...If analytics was 100% foolproof, then that kind of play at the end of the game wouldn't have happened. So it seems like there's still plenty of room for the unpredictable, as this play showed, which makes baseball and most sports a thrill for spectators. Before analytics, stats were still part of the mix. But As someone mentioned, analytics took it up a notch a bit by using more sophisticated number crunching and computers. But clearly the human factor can still throw all that out of the window.Randy @ WCG Comicshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08105266129029859540noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-89750680827798897682020-10-26T16:02:09.697-07:002020-10-26T16:02:09.697-07:00HAPPY BIRTHDAY to David! Doesn't look a day ov...HAPPY BIRTHDAY to David! Doesn't look a day over 38!Jay Moriartynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-36236756003950484962020-10-26T15:18:48.805-07:002020-10-26T15:18:48.805-07:00I forgot to mention Happy Birthday to David.
Mik...I forgot to mention Happy Birthday to David. <br /><br />Mike Barer, no I don't expect Ken to applaud the 66 Orioles. But my point was Wally Bunker was one of the unknowns in the series. That he was a pitcher makes him even more admirable. However, since Ken's first MLB broadcasting job was with the great John Miller in Baltimore, I'm guessing he's got a lot of warm feelings for the O's, but not the 66 version. Moenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-67857868578283832712020-10-26T15:08:28.246-07:002020-10-26T15:08:28.246-07:00I don't think Game Four necessarily inspires t...I don't think Game Four necessarily inspires the analytics debate as much as the general notion that baseball is a GREAT game.<br /><br />A great game that you can't run the damn clock on. Or pass the final at bat to your S*T*A*R player. No need to bring up analytics or advanced metrics. The awesomeness is right there. <br /><br />I saw a pathetic tweet during Game Five about the greatest thing in sports being some NFL quarterback on TV passing a pigskin. This was about the same time a FRIGGIN' STRAIGHT STEAL ATTEMPT OF HOME happened! Keep yer Fuuttyball! Saburohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00075733019914312218noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-39279184467793547122020-10-26T14:02:57.193-07:002020-10-26T14:02:57.193-07:00This Nationals fan notes that despite a Game 4 end...This Nationals fan notes that despite a Game 4 ending for the ages, in the overnights Game 5 on Fox was beaten by NBC's Sunday night game between Seattle and Arizona, two teams not initially slated for prime time. (The Tampa Bay at Las Vegas game was moved up by the NFL, supposedly because several Raiders players had missed practice due to illness but more likely because the Bucs and Rays would've gone head-to-head.) While it turned out to have a great finish as the Cards rallied to win late in OT, the World Series should <i>always</i> outdraw regular-season football, no matter which teams are playing in either game. Our society has indeed devolved. VP81955https://www.blogger.com/profile/11792390726196611188noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-79060653605608958282020-10-26T13:25:11.801-07:002020-10-26T13:25:11.801-07:00Hi, Ken. Two notes:
1) I completely agree regardi...Hi, Ken. Two notes:<br /><br />1) I completely agree regarding the times World Series games start. Yeah, it's great for people living on the West Coast, because a 5 PM start means they're probably home from work. (Except we're in the middle of a pandemic and this was a Saturday night game.) But if you're trying to get kids to watch (or listen), they aren't going to make it that long. Especially kids rooting for Tampa Bay, which needs all the fans they can get. This has long been a pet peeve of mine, and I don't know how to solve it short of the fans puting together a Change.org petition to Fox Sports.<br /><br />2) I get your argument regarding Clayton Kershaw. He did only throw 85 pitches. That said, it wasn't his best game (56 strikes, 29 balls, 10 swinging strikes, 55 game score), and flipping the Rays' lineup over is never a bad idea (especially getting Hunter Renfroe, who can't hit righties at all, out and forcing the Rays to put in Austin Meadows, who's not nearly as good a fielder).<br /><br />On a completely different note, here's a question. I'm transitioning my career from print production and project management into freelance writing--I spent the last 10 months working with a political strategy firm. Not surprisingly, they're not going to need as many writers after the election ends. What did you do during the early years when you were breaking into the industry and looking for writing work? How did you search and how much time did you dedicate daily to finding jobs?Curt Alliaumehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05875046706746482871noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-4404465031984063282020-10-26T13:13:40.088-07:002020-10-26T13:13:40.088-07:00Moe, I don't see you getting much love from Ke...Moe, I don't see you getting much love from Ken on the '66 Series. It was a dark time for Dodger fans and marked the end of the Koufax era <br />Great, well balanced team, though.Mike Barerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14447874605833321732noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-53438678247435772172020-10-26T13:00:26.577-07:002020-10-26T13:00:26.577-07:00my online impression of vin scully doesn't nee...my online impression of vin scully doesn't need any analytics<br /><br />deuces are wild, two runners on, two outs, two strikes, two balls in the 2nd inning of a doubleheader, the batter is 2nd baseman tommy tutone, wearing number two, batting 2nd on Tuesday with a 2 mile wind blowing across 2nd base to the 2nd pitcher this inning, I have a dinner date for two planned with my lovely wife tonight, this will be the 2nd time we are eating out this week, I usually order two...Cowboy Surferhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07703914886255967601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19336675.post-80048133370408853872020-10-26T12:47:15.562-07:002020-10-26T12:47:15.562-07:00I live on the East Coast. The games start too lat...I live on the East Coast. The games start too late and take too long. They end just before midnight and then it takes awhile for me to fall asleep. And why bother watching when I can see all the highlights when I get up in the morning. I do wish I had seen that attempted steal of home live. Jeff Boicehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14600946876122022978noreply@blogger.com