So let’s see. First the networks gave up on Saturday night — now showing reruns and newsmagazines and sports. Then they mostly threw in the towel on Friday nights. And now NBC is considering dropping 1/3 of it's primetime programming.
We’re seeing the slow end of broadcast network television as we know it (or soon — knew it). I would be surprised if there are broadcast networks in three-to-five years. And if there are, they will just be replaying content that originated on their streaming services (or, in the case of Fox — Tubi). New NBC shows will premier on Peacock first, not the other way around.
Cable channels are also in a precarious place. Cable customers no longer want to pay for channels they don’t watch so they bundle. As a result, a lot of the niche and fringe cable channels could soon go belly-up. I'm waiting for the Hallmark Channel to show their Christmas movies all year long.
It’s the wild wild west out there, folks. Industry folks were certain streaming was the future, but once Netflix suffered a stock free-fall earlier this year, suddenly streaming no longer looks like such a sure thing.
So what WILL be the future of delivering entertainment to your TV, phone, car, whatever? Now THERE’S a cliffhanger.
What will be the future of delivering entertainment? Whatever Apple wants.
ReplyDeleteI suspect Ken that you've never bet on the stock exchange, because you'd be panicking at every fluctuation.
ReplyDeleteStreaming, despite the odd bump, is the future.
Like radio, the networks will always be there because:
a) they're free
b) they're still the best place to advertise your weekend sale to a maximum audience.
TV drama shows may be too expensive because they pay the Set Decorator by the truckload.
And when Tucker Carlson sitting behind a desk outrates your 8 pm million dollar extravaganza -
And Greg Gutfeld sitting behind a desk outrates the hoards in the Colbert stadium -
It's maybe time to adapt to the cheaper model.
Streaming is a sure thing. The question is When the music stops, how many chairs will there be and who will be in them.
ReplyDeleteFox News and ESPN are part of most people's basic cables package. And they do the most to inflate the costs of basic cable. It's not just niche channels that have a lot to fear from unbundling; millions of people who don't care about sports would drop ESPN if they could. And tens of millions of sane people would love to quit paying for Fox News.
ReplyDeleteAnd just like with long distance subsidizing local telephone service and repair, and Kodacolor subsidizing 35mm IR and UV film, and a dozen other such things over the history of the march of technology...
ReplyDeleteWhat will happen when network TV entertainment is no longer around to subsidize the network news divisions at *all*?
Ken...the Hallmark Channel already shows their Christmas movies all year long...
ReplyDeleteThe biggest issue I have with American TV is commercials. If I'm paying to receive the channel (in whatever form) why do I still have to see commercials? For this reason I cancelled my cable almost 15 years ago. I was paying for about 500 channels but only really wanted 5 of them, but guess what, each was in a different package I had to subscribe to and most of them had commercials.
ReplyDeleteRemember when Hallmark Channel used to air such shows as M*A*S*H, FRASIER, and I LOVE LUCY, before Martha Stewart bought it out, then turned it into a some kind of a hybrid of HGTV and Lifetime?
ReplyDeleteHallmark still airs "Frasier" and "Cheers" overnight--albeit in modified form. The saltier language is edited out.
DeleteIf broadcast networks are dying why do they still spend more money than ever on sports?
ReplyDeleteI still think streaming is the future. Netflix probably took a hit because they're devoting so much effort into their originals, and too many of their originals are shit.
ReplyDeleteTechnology changes. The audience evolves. I cut cable five years ago, and rarely watch "network" TV. I'm surprised that they're not contemplating giving up the FIRST hour of primetime.
ReplyDeleteSo instead of "Must See TV" it has become "Musty TV".
ReplyDelete@ Joseph Scarbrough said...
ReplyDeleteRemember when Hallmark Channel used to air such shows as M*A*S*H, FRASIER, and I LOVE LUCY, before Martha Stewart bought it out, then turned it into a some kind of a hybrid of HGTV and Lifetime?
Jack Donaghy: I remember when Bravo used to air operas! (and so do I. Weren't they going to do simulcasts of NY theater, too?)
I can't remember who I heard say the other day, on a podcast, that the Food Network used to show people how to cook, now it shows people cooking, in competition shows. I watch Chopped religiously for a while, but fell away from it.
(also, I never knew Marth Stewart bout Hallmark! so she's making bank on all those freaky Christmas rom-coms with good witches and whatnot? Is Snoop an investor?)
Do you remember way back when Ted Turner bought MGM's library and used it to turn WTBS into a "super-station"? It had an Atlanta broadcast license, but made good money by being shown on cable channels across the country. Turner had access to 2000+ movies, not every one of them a gem, but that was enough to convince cable operators to subscribe. TBS even ran a campaign to get movie lovers to ask their cable company to include TBS.
ReplyDeleteStreaming is the future, and for the most part it is going to be studio direct to viewer. The studios have back libraries. They're producing new movies. They can produce their own shorts and series. Until the 1948 Paramount decision, the studios owned theaters. They cranked out B-movies to fill out their double features. That golden age of going to the movies, if only to experience the wonder of air conditioning, was studio direct to viewer.
There will be exceptions. Specialty distributors like Crunchyroll, which deals with imports or Criterion, which deals with classics, will still be there. Netflix is just another studio, and they'll have to rely more and more on their own library and new production. I expect Amazon and Apple to stay in the game. The Amazon model may have to change as more rights owners and producers to direct, but, like Apple, streaming is part of their brand service.
As for the networks, I'm guessing they'll become streaming brands. Maybe broadcast TV will become a marketing aid for their streaming products.
I'm guessing their profits are down....
ReplyDeleteMaybe I'm too much of a news nerd (TM) and we're not discussing ABC today, but I am convinced if ABC could pull Ted Koppel out of retirement and relaunch OG Nightline in the ten-eleven east hour, ABC would have a ratings jackpot.
ReplyDeleteThe new Premier League and European Champions Leagues contracts with Comcast Universal and Paramount Plus give a clue: A few games will be on NBC and CBS, others on cable, and the rest go to streaming. The fact the U.S. TV rights to the Premier and Champions Leagues are worth billions is mind boggling enough for me. I also notice the parent companies no longer bother to include the name of the broadcast network in their corporate title.
ReplyDeleteI suppose broadcast TV will survive to have some free outlet for the local college and NFL team as well as to broadcast the occasional severe storm/flash flood warning.
>> "As for the networks, I'm guessing they'll become streaming brands. Maybe broadcast TV will become a marketing aid for their streaming products." <<
ReplyDeleteWith the exception of Fox, the big networks already share parent companies with major streaming services (NBC/Peacock, CBS/Paramount+, ABC/Disney+/Hulu). If you compare the scripted programs on the streaming services to what is on their sister broadcast networks, it isn't hard to see where the bulk of the budget is going.
I think Ken is absolutely right that the broadcast networks will soon be mostly second run outlets for streaming programming. What will be interesting to see is what will happen to live programming. Until recently, I figured that live events would be the main lifeline for broadcast TV, but even that is moving towards streaming now. Several streaming services have contracted with sports and Disney is even moving Dancing with the Stars from ABC to Disney+ this season.
Wondering if any here could report on various non-local STREAMING services.
ReplyDelete(I'll contact some of them directly for "front end" promises - but would like a "back end" report)
The local cable vendor shut off my box in May - along with 200 Jepoardy shows - I don't really want to reward them to sign up to their replacement streaming "service".
I'm interested in:
The US Open - and the other tennis majors.
Baseball Playoffs
Pro Golf majors - and Ryder Cup.
NBA National Broadcasts - without the 3-hour League Pass delay
So much for my Friday question I asked the other day regarding this, already answered now :)
ReplyDeleteI expect broadcast TV will still exist for a while, but like with terrestrial radio, it'll be a shadow of its former self, trudging along with reruns, probably from the DuMont Network, and with very long ad breaks for local carpet shops, PSA's about heartworms, and endless commercials and samples of the new and better TV folks are watching on the other side of the tracks in the gated community of Streaming Binges. "It's Your Bubble. It's Your Home."
ReplyDeleteIf reports about the likely shortage of electrical power this winter in the UK are true, we'll be back to creating our own entertainment by candle light. Even if there's enough power, it will be so expensive that half of the population may not be able to afford to turn on their TV.
ReplyDeletewg
Stodgy old CBS is still hanging on with five full nights of scripted shows - even on Fridays. Too bad you can't tell one show from the next, but it's working for them. I don't have any use for them except for YOUNG SHELDON and GHOSTS, and ABC's only show I like - THE WONDER YEARS - isn't even on the fall schedule. THIS IS US was the last thing I watched on NBC - they should move the nightly news to the 10 PM ET hour, give Saturday night back to the affiliates and retire SNL after the 50th season.
ReplyDeleteI think the only reason the networks haven't completely gone belly-up is because there are still people of a certain age who don't understand the modern technology and didn't cut the cord. I'm thinking of my 91-year-old grandmother, or even my mom who's about 30 years younger and hated the Smart TV I got her for her birthday (she's since gotten used to it haha).
ReplyDeleteBut as my generation (born in '82) gets older, I imagine we'll definitely see a changing of the guard by the end of this decade if not much sooner. I subscribed to Youtube TV so I could get ESPN but am definitely looking at switching to Sling. In the meantime I watch more shows on Pluto than anything. The variety there is what I thought the 500 channel universe should've been.
ReplyDeleteMANY THANKS to Brandon in Virginia who wrote:
I subscribed to Youtube TV so I could get ESPN but am definitely looking at switching to Sling. In the meantime I watch more shows on Pluto than anything.
Now to find how to get TNT - early MLB playoffs, national NBA broadcasts.
@ Wendy M. Grossman.
ReplyDeleteHeard last week on BBC World Report - concerns about getting sufficient Natural Gas for heating over "across the pond".
Too much Russian dominance with that - BEST OF LUCK
Never had or wanted cable [even though I was calling soccer games for a local cable access channel]. I refuse to pay for crap that I don't want, like "dollar-a-holler" preacher channels or infomercial shit which, last time I checked, half of the cable lineup was that shit. TV studios used to put out DVDs of shows which I checked out of the library or bought if I wanted it badly enough but now they're not even doing that because this basically forces the viewer to subscribe to their streaming service. I literally have not watched but about 6 hours of TV the last three months and it was all local news or Jeopardy. Stuff I want to see is on when I'm either working or out doing other stuff. Yeah, I could record it but half the time the crap is pre-empted, delayed or whatever where I miss either beginning or end of show.
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ReplyDeleteHorseshoe theory suggests that after TikTok fades, we jump right back around to the zoetrope and try again.
ReplyDeletePlutoTV is pretty great, you can watch Julia and Carol Burnett 24/7 live and there are full seasons on demand for Becker, The Jeffersons, Cagney and Lacey, etc. They update the classic movies and TV shows regularly.
ReplyDeleteLately I've been watching classic 30s comedies on YouTube. There are some great little oddities that I've discovered on the playlists, including an early Gary Cooper comedy Seven Days Leave. Also the Sidney Toler Charlie Chans and Mary Hartman.
@Kaleberg While the WTBS era was before my time, I do remember the "Superstation" era of TBS and even into the New Tens or so, when TBS had far more variety in terms of the shows they would air reruns of, from THE ANDY GRIFFITH SHOW to ROSEANNE to SEINFELD to EVERYBODY LOVES RAYMOND. Then they gradually pulled a TV Land and started shoving their crappy original "sitcoms" that nobody liked into our faces . . . I stopped watching TBS long ago when they dropped all the good shows, and then practically turned into the 24-hour BIG SETH BANG MARFARLANE THEORY channel.
ReplyDeleteKen, Deadline reports that the CW is actively seeking new multicam sitcoms and wants meetings with creatives. Are you and David gonna look into this? We need Levine Isaacs writing back on TV stat!
ReplyDeleteThe local stations where I live, Baltimore, are replacing everything they can with local news. I'm in my mid-50's, but mostly watch game shows, Court shows, or old tv shows. I usually pay for one streaming service a month, watch the shows I want and switch to another the next month. They might be the only thing that survives on broadcast TV. Sooner or later, the NFL is going to pay-streaming, they have already started with Amazon. Orioles did it, haven't seen an Orioles game since. Ravens are next.
ReplyDeleteThings started going downhill years ago, when Jimmy Fallon was tapped to host NBC's 11:30 program (yes, the title is "The Tonight Show," but personally speaking, "The Tonight Show" went off the air at 12:36 pm on May 23, 1992). What used to be the #1 late night franchise is now #4 in the lat night ratings with some weeks being lucky to climb to #3. Fallon will likely be the last host of this 68 year old institution. No one stays up anymore to watch it. They can grab clips the next day. Look for NBC to be a network that runs the Today Show from 7a to 3p everyday with sports and news programs to take up the prime time and late nigth hours.
ReplyDeleteFriday question: why do some streaming services drop an entire series at once, yet some streaming services drop one episode a week, as if it was an over-the-air network?
ReplyDelete> There’s a report that NBC might give back the 10:00 hour to local affiliates and only program two hours of primetime TV a night
ReplyDeleteIt seems like only yesterday that 10 was so important to NBC because its affiliates would howl if the ratings weren't good because they needed a strong lead in to the local news. This is why The Jay Leno Show was such a debacle. This was 2010, only 12 years ago.
Now, if 10-11 goes back to the affiliates, does The Tonight Show move up to 11?
@Jahn Ghalt Glad I could help! Last I checked Sling indeed carries TNT.
ReplyDeleteI remember what a big deal it was when the networks gave back the 7:30 p.m. block to the affiliates in 1974.
ReplyDeleteThe future of streaming is they will put ads on the content.
ReplyDeleteAs studios are slowly figuring out, streaming is not the future of movies. They were blinded by Netflix's initial success. Putting movies on demand takes away so many revenue streams, and the payoff of taking 100% of the money from subscribers on a monthly basis does not balance that out.
ReplyDeleteWith the broadcast networks dying I wonder what happens to local news? Does it die as well or will they have to pivot to streaming?
ReplyDelete