Friday, February 23, 2007

What will win Best Picture?

My bitchy Oscar review will appear shortly after the ceremony Sunday night. In the meantime, what are you waiting for? It's time to enter that office pool or parlay your winnings from the Daytona 500. So who will win Best Picture? Allow your humble blogmeister to handicap:

Why it will win -- It’s daring. Imagine, a comedy without Will Ferrell. It’s the Cinderella story of the season and the only nominee you can watch without wanting to kill yourself.

Why it won’t win – it’s not “important”. Spielberg is still crying that SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE beat SAVING PRIVATE RYAN. Wait’ll you see all the bad LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE clones the TV networks are currently developing. One grandfather is wackier than the next. The movie will be appreciated much more in a year. But it’ll be too late.


Why it will win – CRASH meets the AMAZING RACE. Lots of scope and intricate stories. Oscar loves what he can’t follow. Makes him seem “deep”. And it’s a “cause” movie.

Why it won’t win – Not sure it’s the right “cause”. Plus, a large number of people despise it. That’s generally not good.


Why it will win – Clint Eastwood could direct RENO 911 and it would get nominated. World War II is still hot. Politically correct. A Hollywood make-good for PEARL HARBOR.

Why it won’t win – Only seven people have seen it. And three of them thought they were going to see LETTERS FROM A KILLER starring Patrick Swayze and Gia Carides.


Why it will win -- It’s Scorsese’s year. Great to see all those big stars together in a movie that’s not OCEANS WHATEVER.

Why it won’t win -- GOODFELLAS it ain’t, and that didn’t win. Not great to see all those big stars shot to death in a movie that’s not OCEANS WHATEVER.


Why it will win – Thoroughly engrossing, pitch perfect performances, and name me a single filmgoer who isn’t completely obsessed with the Queen of England?

Why it won’t win – Some voters may perceive it as just another mother-in-law from hell flick. Others think it’s a downer and question whether Princess Diana had to die.

So what movie do I think should win Best Picture?


Tomorrow: Best actor and actress handi-capping. Hint -- don't put a lot of money down on Penelope Cruz.


maven said...

Hey, Ken: I still can't believe "Sunshine" got "Dreamgirls" spot! Sunshine is a cute, feel happy Netflix rental!

Anonymous said...

I tell you, the worst actor, in my opinion, to look at is Toni Collette, who is the actor in Little Miss Sunshine. So that would kill that film for me. utahgramma

Anonymous said...

I don't even want to see Little Miss Sunshine because of the downer in About a Boy, Toni Collette.

Anonymous said...

Thank you, hugely, for accepting my comment. I have no idea what you or any other site means by "username." Someone told me to type in any word or madeup word and that sort of username would be accepted.

Anonymous said...

I loved Dreamgirls and identified with it. There are some powerfully talented actors in it.

la guy said...

"Others think it’s a downer and question whether Princess Diana had to die."

That made me laugh. I think you have a future in this comedy business.

By the way, you might find this amusing in light of one of your recent posts.

Craig said...

I think everyone forgot about UNFORGIVEN a couple years ago, so I hope they don't forget about Million Dollar Baby this time around and confuse everyone again.

carter said...

Dreamgirls was little more than a bunch of music videos sewn together by some very poorly written scenes.

It was terrible as far as story goes.

Babel was not good either, but at least it had SCENES.

I really don't understand why you push Dreamgirls so, so much.

Anonymous said...

Dreamgirls, oh god, not another musical with a simple storyline and forgettable songs excused because hey it's a musical. Please. It is just an "ok" musical with some ok to good actors. In the good old days, say, West Side Story, Sound of Music et al, there were well-written songs that became hits and people recalled them. Not like the tag-on songs by most likely Randy Newman, added to films to get at least a best-song oscar.
Ask anyone "on the street" to name two songs from that so-called important musical "Dreamgirls". And hum the tune. Same with the Oscar jury.

As for Scorcese, the system is at work reminding us fools that he is supposed to win this one. no chance to escape.

anonymous XII said...

I cringe when I hear "Long time listener, first time caller."

I shudder when I hear "Thank you for taking my call."

Now the blogosphere, and anonymous in particular, has brought us "Thank you hugely for accepting my comment."

I may cry.

Dwacon said...

I think I will TIVO the award ceremony and fast forward through most of it...

Gary said...

Sure about two things:

1) Marty will nail the Best Director Oscar because it's long overdue. This year, even if he shot a public service clip against drunk driving, he'd still get it. C'mon, the man deserves it.

2) The Departed, however, will not get the Best Picture honor because the golden boy gets shot so unexpectedly. He was supposed to get the girl. There is no closure in this tight little story of two rats and a Jack. And the real rat at the very end was a terrible visual joke totally unbecoming of a great director. Why did he feel there was a need for that, I don't know. And how did it escape Thelma's usually-unmatched quality editing? Marty thought his viewers got so old and senile that they would otherwise not get the whole 2.5-hour long "rat" motif?

Cap'n Bob Napier said...

Thanks for revealing the ending, Gary. Really bright move.

Anonymous said...

Nope. He did not reveal the ending cap'n. Just watch the film.

rorybaldwin said...

He kinda did.

Wally said...

Appreciate the post, and you're dead-on re: 'Little Miss Sunshine.' But since I do have to enter the Oscar pool: What do you really think will win, Ken? (I'll split the winnings with ya, if you like!)

Emily Blake said...

I liked The Departed, and especialy Mark Walberg, but I left the theater dodging all the bullets I was now paranoid where aimed at my head.

Little Miss Sunshine I would see again and again and again and feel happy every time.

I think a movie only qualfies for Best Picture if somebody dies in it.

I'm spending the Oscar broadcast having my carpet cleaned.

jason oliver said...

I still can't believe there is so much hype surrounding a re-make of a foreign film. What Infernal Affairs lacked in bang bang brutal violence, it made up for with a unique feeling of suspense around every corner. I feel like that didn't fully translate in Marty's version, but possibly because I had seen the original first. Marty should have won for gangs of new york, so this year should make up for that.

i think it would be great if little miss sunshine took home top prize. it was the most fun and entertaining movie of the year. other than BORAT.

Slubgob said...

World War II is still hot. Politically correct. A Hollywood make-good for PEARL HARBOR.

Hollywood will never make good for "Pearl Harbor." The only positive thing that came out of that movie was a funny song in "Team America."

Craig said...

I thought it was obvious they were holding out to give Scorcese the lifetime achievement. You know, like Hitchcock? Thank you.

Seymour said...

"I think a movie only qualfies for Best Picture if somebody dies in it."

Yes. Even all these years later, I'm still reeling from that bloodbath in MY FAIR LADY.

Paul said...

I liked "Pearl Harbor". Michael Bay said from the beginning that it was supposed to be an "old-style movie" and it felt like old WW2 movies with better special effects. Then again, as I've said before, I like almost all of Michael Bay's movies. I guess I'm somewhat of a black sheep.

The Departed did have closure. Mark Wahlberg delivered it, and it was grand.

I really have no idea who Best Picture is going to go to. Not even a clue.

Jesse Wendel said...

Gary -

Next time, how about some ***SPOILER*** tags, okay pal?

Not all of us have seen The Departed. In fact, the DVD was just released last week (2/13/07).

Common courtesy not to mention standard practice says Put Spoiler Tags around key reveals of current year release movies.

Anonymous said...

"I think a movie only qualfies for Best Picture if somebody dies in it."

"Yes. Even all these years later, I'm still reeling from that bloodbath in MY FAIR LADY."

George Cukor, I am sure, was dying just a little bit to think THIS was the film he gets the Oscar for...

Gamboa said...

Don't be so sure about Penélope Cruz. Athough you don't take her seriously, I feel like she is winning. She is by far the worst actress of the nominees, but she is taking home the statuette, you bet.

Blarneyman said...

UNITED 93! I can't believe this film was overlooked. It was the most incredible film of 2006. Fact. Fuck Dreamgirls. And Little Miss Sunshine was a mess of a film, I totally didn't buy the sitcom jokes and farce and pathos layed on so thick. It's acting outdid its story or directing. The cast was great. Everything else was offensive.

TCinLA said...

Scorsese's gonna win for "The Departed" for the same reason Newman won for "The Color of Money."

Why oh why didn't he win for "Taxi Driver"?? That movie is so good it's even good on @#$%$@!! AMC where they cut to commercial every 8-5 minutes even if if means cutting in the middle of a line of dialogue.

TCinLA said...

8-poiint-5 minutes, 8 minutes, 30 seconds. The most annoying timing of all the annoying channels on basic cable.

God damn Time-Warner Cable to hell for twenty eternities for taking TCM off basic cable. Futhermuckers.

Anonymous said...

Count me as someone who's completely uninterested in the entire British royal family. I haven't seen the movie because I could care less about the subject. It might as well be about crochet. And I LIKE Helen Mirren already.